Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189e…10a4 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
politics 32% $0
other 22% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 70% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 70% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage375d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US loose jobs in September? Oct 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $22 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 03 $3 $0 +16%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $3 $0 -6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $4 $0 +7%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Jun 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $28 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $28 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $23 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $14 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $11 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 10d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $20 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.37 · official $27.37 (match) · 126 history records