Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x18a0…2f2b crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$409 (-3%) realized −$410 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%60W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$83
14 days+$58
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$649
sports 15% +$330
other 6% −$79
world 1% −$196
finance 1% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.0% -5.0% 27% 23% -13.3%
≤30d 56 +3.6% -6.3% 39% 36% -8.0%
≤90d 115 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 37% -12.7%
all 115 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 37% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 37% -12.7%
10% -17.0% 26% -21.1%
15% -25.0% 19% -28.7%
20% -32.3% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$47 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$410
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses60 / 55
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage56d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $354 +$87 +25%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $909 +$36 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$59 +1155%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$84 -79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $208 +$37 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $0 +$1 +216%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $401 +$46 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 −$41 -58%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $301 +$25 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$22 +54%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$31 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -86%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +64%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $202 +$54 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $30 +$4 +14%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $15 +$2 +14%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $101 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $515 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $429 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $403 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $65 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.06 · official $101.06 (match) · 286 history records