Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x18a1…de0f sports 64 markets active 10d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+9%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%36W / 28L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$86
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$112
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 62 -7.2% -16.1% 56% 50% -2.2%
≤90d 64 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 50% -2.2%
all 64 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 50% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 50% -2.2%
10% -24.9% 44% -11.6%
15% -32.1% 31% -20.1%
20% -38.8% 22% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage20d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $10 +$8 +83%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -61%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $225 +$111 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $179 +$85 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $63 +$14 +23%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $131 +$22 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $86 +$21 +24%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +205%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $39 +$17 +45%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +87%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$1 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3 −$2 -55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $10 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $126 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $10 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 9d
Canada to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 58¢ $25 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 9d
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $100 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $4 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $121 10d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $2 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $264 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $179 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 10d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $63 10d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 10d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $131 10d
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records