Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18a3…f852
crypto · 146 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$51 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses49 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)140 / 146
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 6 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $34 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -48%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$9 +452%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$23 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $1 +$5 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4AM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$28
crypto 30% +$10
sports 9% −$4
finance 2% −$3
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 3¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 22h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 5¢ $2 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $2 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -38.9% -44.8% 16% 16% -18.7%
≤30d 99 +5.6% -4.4% 34% 33% -2.3%
≤90d 140 +3.4% -6.5% 35% 33% -5.7%
all 140 +3.4% -6.5% 35% 33% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 33% -5.7%
10% -15.4% 31% -14.7%
15% -23.6% 29% -23.0%
20% -31.1% 24% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.87 · official $50.87 (match) · 385 history records