Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18a4…3a31
sports · 276 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71,509 -103%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70,776 · open −$734
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,965
Realized−$70,776
Unrealized−$734
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses112 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$794
Open positions69
Markets (closed)457 / 276
History coverage1d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2466.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 69 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70,776
7 days−$70,776
14 days−$70,776
30 days−$70,776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 40¢ 100¢ $1,648 $4,099 +$2,450 (+149%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 67¢ 84¢ $2,963 $3,677 +$714 (+24%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 70¢ 62¢ $1,500 $1,339 −$161 (-11%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $478 $1,208 +$731 (+153%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 52¢ 32¢ $1,510 $915 −$595 (-39%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $471 $878 +$407 (+86%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 47¢ 100¢ $296 $633 +$337 (+114%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 68¢ 25¢ $1,492 $551 −$941 (-63%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 86¢ 82¢ $512 $492 −$20 (-4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $213 $381 +$168 (+79%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $247 $283 +$36 (+15%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 12¢ 18¢ $125 $187 +$61 (+49%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $63 $140 +$77 (+121%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 20¢ 84¢ $33 $138 +$105 (+321%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 75¢ 100¢ $95 $126 +$31 (+33%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 65¢ 94¢ $78 $113 +$35 (+45%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 76¢ 68¢ $112 $101 −$11 (-10%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 100¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+10%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 59¢ 56¢ $83 $79 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 84¢ 84¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 46¢ 94¢ $34 $69 +$36 (+105%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Kansas City Royals 41¢ 98¢ $25 $61 +$35 (+140%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 84¢ 93¢ $54 $60 +$6 (+11%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Seattle Mariners 55¢ 96¢ $33 $58 +$25 (+74%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Seattle Mariners 50¢ 94¢ $30 $58 +$27 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $7 −$3 -46%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 +49%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 +20%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $225 −$225 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $159 −$160 -101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $356 −$356 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 13 $259 −$188 -72%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $45 −$53 -118%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 13 $214 −$253 -118%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 13 $48 −$30 -64%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 13 $8 −$5 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 13 $240 −$252 -105%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $528 −$557 -106%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $705 −$739 -105%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 13 $323 −$420 -130%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 13 $1,246 −$1,070 -86%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 13 $346 −$355 -103%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Jun 13 $404 −$183 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 13 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-4.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Emilio Nava Jun 13 $274 −$274 -100%
Istanbul: Maxim Mrva vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 13 $334 −$562 -169%
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Jun 13 $490 −$493 -101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $188 −$198 -105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 13 $375 −$504 -134%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $182 −$195 -107%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 13 $0 +$22 +4535%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $698 −$700 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 13 $32 −$14 -43%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $252 −$297 -118%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $353 −$376 -106%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 13 $12 −$11 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$6,261
other 7% −$1,497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $10 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $3 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $9 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 72¢ $9 0m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 93¢ $11 0m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 93¢ $11 0m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $11 1m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $11 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 1m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $89 1m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 1m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 52¢ $11 2m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 12¢ $2 2m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 49¢ $2 2m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $5 3m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 13¢ $3 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 11¢ $2 4m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 92¢ $18 4m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 14¢ $1 4m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 14¢ $3 4m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 9¢ $2 4m
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 21¢ $1 4m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 4¢ $1 4m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 9¢ $2 4m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 75¢ $1,480 5m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 66¢ $6 6m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 83¢ $17 7m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 18¢ $4 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -25.6% -32.7% 25% 19% -55.7%
≤30d 457 -25.6% -32.7% 25% 19% -55.7%
≤90d 457 -25.6% -32.7% 25% 19% -55.7%
all 457 -25.6% -32.7% 25% 19% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2466.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 19% -55.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 15% -59.9%
15% -45.0% 13% -63.8%
20% -50.4% 11% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,965.33 · official $16,962.04 (match) · 3500 history records