Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18a5…5bd1 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
world 32% $0
other 18% +$6
crypto 10% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 31 +8.5% -1.9% 19% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 3% -8.9%
10% -11.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -19.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -27.7% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.21 per $1 lost it wins $5.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage332d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 80¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $17 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $2 +$6 +270%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 27 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $47 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $26 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $2 209d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $5 209d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 209d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $5 209d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $5 210d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.71 · official $47.40 (match) · 105 history records