Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18a5…2207 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$157 (-19%) realized −$136 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$191
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$148
sports 30% −$21
crypto 3% −$20
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.8% -38.3% 42% 17% -57.7%
≤30d 15 -23.5% -30.8% 47% 27% -19.0%
≤90d 15 -23.5% -30.8% 47% 27% -19.0%
all 16 -28.3% -35.1% 44% 25% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 25% -32.9%
10% -41.4% 19% -39.3%
15% -47.0% 12% -45.1%
20% -52.2% 12% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 25
History coverage131d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$4 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$26 +244%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $106 −$56 -53%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $105 +$30 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $106 +$105 +100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 25m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $106 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $135 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.02 · official $79.02 (match) · 44 history records