Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18a8…0950 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$11
other 26% −$2
politics 19% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 19 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 16% -8.1%
all 40 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 10% -8.7%
10% -15.9% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.0% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage463d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +14%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $47 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 +$9 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 +$3 +175%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $79 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 18 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $47 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $19 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $24 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $24 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.00 · official $32.68 (match) · 120 history records