Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ad…4e13 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$198 (-4%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%50W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$148
crypto 25% +$6
other 13% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.1% -36.8% 44% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 9 -30.1% -36.8% 44% 44% -15.2%
≤90d 87 -13.0% -21.2% 57% 52% -14.3%
all 87 -13.0% -21.2% 57% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 52% -14.3%
10% -28.8% 37% -22.5%
15% -35.7% 28% -30.0%
20% -42.0% 15% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses50 / 37
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage74d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 87¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$29 -95%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $121 −$20 -17%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$47 +47%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$12 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $42 −$18 -44%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Rwanda vs Nepal Apr 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 28 $105 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Multan Sultans Apr 27 $28 −$28 -100%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 27 $20 −$20 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 27 $11 +$8 +70%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu Apr 27 $88 +$18 +20%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Rwanda vs Italy Apr 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $129 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $73 +$22 +30%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 26 $60 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$5 +50%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $31 +$24 +80%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $74 −$24 -32%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 22 $45 +$7 +16%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 21 $39 +$7 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $31 +$8 +24%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 20 $28 +$2 +8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $72 −$23 -32%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Karachi Kings Apr 19 $72 −$27 -38%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 19 $81 −$63 -79%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 18 $28 +$19 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 17 $23 +$5 +24%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Islamabad United - Who wins th Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings - Who wins the t Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Islamabad United Apr 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 16 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $250 +$206 +82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $177 −$125 -71%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Quetta Gladiators Apr 15 $200 +$172 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $200 +$58 +29%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Apr 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Multan Sultans Apr 14 $41 +$19 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $30 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $57 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $50 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $80 3h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $45 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $99 29h
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Mumbai Indians 72¢ $100 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 55d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 30¢ $7 55d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 63¢ $16 55d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Punjab Kings 37¢ $16 55d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Punjab Kings 57¢ $26 55d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Rwanda vs Nepal BUY Rwanda 75¢ $100 55d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 83¢ $105 56d
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 59¢ $20 56d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $19 56d
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu SELL USA 93¢ $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.43 · official $321.43 (match) · 205 history records