Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18ae…314c
weather · 962 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$81 · open −$98
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$937
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses208 / 297
Open positions222
Markets (closed)505 / 962
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day453.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 222 History 505 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$857
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $4 $25 +$22 (+619%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+316%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+234%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? No 61¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+201%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+176%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 46¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+140%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 68¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 41¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+669%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $4 $8 +$3 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 67¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 67¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 13 $4 +$44 +1238%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 21? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 26? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 26? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 31? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +489%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 18? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 23? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 16? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 2? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 13 $10 −$9 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 23? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 21? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 26? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 27? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,643
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 16m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 40% -12.3%
≤30d 505 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 505 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 40% -12.3%
all 505 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 40% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover453.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 40% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 39% -20.7%
15% -15.3% 39% -28.3%
20% -23.6% 23% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.01 · official $937.52 (match) · 3500 history records