Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x18af…66ef other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$387 (-17%) realized −$342 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$348
sports 32% −$74
crypto 5% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -30.7%
≤30d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -30.7%
≤90d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -30.7%
all 15 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 47% -30.7%
10% -29.3% 40% -37.3%
15% -36.1% 40% -43.4%
20% -42.4% 33% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$116 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized−$342
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $102 −$25 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $71 −$70 -99%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$50 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$136 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $338 −$335 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 36¢ $77 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 98¢ $169 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $338 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.64 · official $454.64 (match) · 28 history records