Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18b0…bf1a crypto 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,503 (+3%) realized +$2,503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%176W / 257L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,585
other 0% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 41% 29% -16.9%
≤30d 83 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 37% -19.3%
≤90d 433 -11.1% -19.5% 41% 33% -16.2%
all 433 -11.1% -19.5% 41% 33% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 33% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 29% -24.2%
15% -34.3% 25% -31.5%
20% -40.7% 19% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$88 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses176 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$79 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $133 −$99 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $466 −$333 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $976 −$532 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1,457 −$1,124 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $602 −$602 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1,071 +$1,257 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $974 +$994 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $731 +$419 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$49 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $325 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$81 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $24 −$19 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$33 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $70 −$12 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$54 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $214 −$142 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$82 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $77 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $415 +$134 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$19 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $300 −$218 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $791 −$490 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $546 +$245 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $481 +$66 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $114 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $35 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $120 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $133 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $149 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $252 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $65 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $445 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $450 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $333 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $527 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $334 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,122 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $325 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $377 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2,328 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $470 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1,003 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $965 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $865 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records