Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18b7…c903
other · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$22 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage611d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $17 $0 +2%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $343 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,907 −$6 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,479 −$3 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 25 $1,906 −$10 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 87% −$21
other 8% −$1
sports 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $12 16h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $7 21h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 32h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 39h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $6 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -1.1% -10.6% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.6% -10.0% 19% 3% -9.6%
all 42 -0.6% -10.0% 21% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.49 · official $12.49 (match) · 334 history records