Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x18b9…997c other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$239 (-8%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$266
crypto 27% +$57
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.2% -26.9% 53% 47% -16.2%
≤30d 19 -19.2% -26.9% 53% 47% -16.2%
≤90d 19 -19.2% -26.9% 53% 47% -16.2%
all 19 -19.2% -26.9% 53% 47% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 47% -16.2%
10% -33.9% 26% -24.2%
15% -40.3% 21% -31.5%
20% -46.2% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$96 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $308 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $305 +$80 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $839 +$104 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $97 −$95 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $484 +$354 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $508 −$500 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $97 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $97 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $839 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $838 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $484 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $125 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records