Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18bc…c07d sports 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$3
politics 23% −$2
other 20% −$2
economics 10% +$1
crypto 10% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 117 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage152d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $111 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $71 −$1 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $184 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $70 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $141 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 8h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 13d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $33 13d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 21d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $45 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $32 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $32 35d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 117d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $43 117d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 93¢ $43 117d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $45 117d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $45 117d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $39 117d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $39 117d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $44 117d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $44 117d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $41 117d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $41 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $46 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $46 117d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $20 117d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $20 117d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $22 117d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $24 117d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 483 history records