Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x18c1…84c5 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,803 (-42%) realized −$2,303 · open −$500
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,325per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,357
other 49% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -80.0%
≤90d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -80.0%
all 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -80.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.4% 33% -80.0%
10% -59.7% 33% -81.9%
15% -63.6% 33% -83.7%
20% -67.2% 0% -85.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$1,179 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,279
Realized−$2,303
Unrealized−$500
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,325
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,778 $1,398 −$380 (-21%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $1,000 $881 −$119 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,884 −$1,873 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,500 −$484 -32%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 29 $399 +$191 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,278.93 · official $2,278.93 (match) · 24 history records