Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18c3…c46c
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$38 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 8 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 59¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$26 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 37% −$26
other 34% −$11
sports 16% $0
world 12% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $16 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-78.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -76.5% -78.8% 0% 0% -79.4%
≤30d 5 -76.5% -78.8% 0% 0% -79.4%
≤90d 5 -76.5% -78.8% 0% 0% -79.4%
all 5 -76.5% -78.8% 0% 0% -79.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.8% 0% -79.4%
10% -80.8% 0% -81.3%
15% -82.7% 0% -83.1%
20% -84.4% 0% -84.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.29 · official $50.29 (match) · 19 history records