Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18c3…21a0 crypto 36 markets active 18h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,548 (-17%) realized −$751 · open −$797
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$119
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,565
other 15% −$142
sports 5% −$253
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +48.3% +34.1% 50% 50% +84.1%
≤30d 3 +28.0% +15.9% 33% 33% +4.0%
≤90d 6 -36.0% -42.1% 17% 17% -42.7%
all 31 -20.4% -28.0% 23% 19% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 19% -28.2%
10% -34.9% 16% -35.1%
15% -41.2% 16% -41.4%
20% -47.0% 16% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$83 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$751
Unrealized−$797
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage236d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $928 $192 −$736 (-79%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 11 $107 +$121 +113%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 04 $373 −$46 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 06 $194 −$181 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 01 $211 −$197 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 01 $21 −$20 -93%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 18 $250 −$49 -20%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 24 $599 −$160 -27%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Nov 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Nov 23 $472 +$91 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 23 $307 −$49 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $1,328 +$272 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $201 +$226 +113%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 14 $164 +$12 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 07 $65 −$12 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 05 $28 −$10 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 02 $77 −$29 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 30 $365 +$70 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 30 $20 −$2 -10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $140 −$26 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 26 $848 −$695 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $60 −$29 -49%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $60 −$56 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 24 $182 −$32 -18%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $77 −$28 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $718 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $427 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 28h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $534 28h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $227 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $664 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $988 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $503 6d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $54 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $457 11d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 40d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 44d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $74 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 44d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 147d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $201 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $151 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.71 · official $253.71 (match) · 187 history records