Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18c5…e5e0
crypto · 28 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$25 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$33 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage73d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$48
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-30%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 1? Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Team Falcons 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +156%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$41 +3800%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +14%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +46%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 34% +$5
crypto 29% +$27
sports 18% +$4
other 17% −$8
finance 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $10 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 61¢ $10 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 76¢ $12 38h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 38h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 3d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 0¢ $2 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 78¢ $6 6d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 8d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter SELL Alexander Donski 100¢ $12 8d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter BUY Alexander Donski 78¢ $3 8d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter BUY Alexander Donski 80¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +145.8% +122.4% 54% 46% +26.3%
≤30d 19 +92.9% +74.5% 58% 47% +14.4%
≤90d 27 +41.1% +27.7% 44% 37% +1.2%
all 27 +41.1% +27.7% 44% 37% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 37% +1.2%
10% +15.5% 22% -8.5%
15% +4.3% 15% -17.3%
20% -5.9% 11% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.75 · official $16.75 (match) · 53 history records