Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18d2…e9c3
sports · 773 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$49 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,144 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$907
Realized−$1,144
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses475 / 483
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions97
Markets (closed)958 / 773
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day528.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 97 History 958 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,319
7 days−$1,144
14 days−$1,144
30 days−$1,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 52¢ 50¢ $72 $69 −$4 (-5%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 76¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 50¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 75¢ 74¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Ashlyn Krueger 73¢ 88¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 88¢ 86¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 60¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Alexander Shevchenko 61¢ 40¢ $19 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Blinkova 67¢ 58¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Under 70¢ 69¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC Bournemouth leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Cajamarca win on 2026-05-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% +$296
other 17% +$118
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $14 3m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $1 10m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2 12m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $12 12m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $1 12m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $2 13m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $1 17m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 86¢ $1 21m
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 72¢ $3 22m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 66¢ $3 23m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 28m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 69¢ $1 28m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 72¢ $1 28m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 30m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 73¢ $1 30m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 73¢ $1 30m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 31m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 31m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 32m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $2 35m
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 79¢ $5 37m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $9 37m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 40m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $2 47m
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 75¢ $2 49m
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 71¢ $1 52m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 74¢ $1 52m
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 63¢ $1 54m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $4 56m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 958 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 47% -22.0%
≤30d 958 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 47% -22.0%
≤90d 958 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 47% -22.0%
all 958 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 47% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover528.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 47% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 36% -29.5%
15% -44.1% 21% -36.3%
20% -49.6% 12% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.78 · official $906.80 (match) · 3500 history records