Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d3…d972 crypto 436 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-8%) realized −$349 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%245W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$48
14 days−$336
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 59% -18.1%
≤30d 416 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 56% -18.0%
≤90d 416 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 56% -18.0%
all 435 -11.5% -20.0% 56% 55% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 55% -18.5%
10% -27.6% 46% -26.3%
15% -34.6% 30% -33.4%
20% -41.0% 14% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses245 / 190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)435 / 436
History coverage101d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$51 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $56 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 1037 history records