Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x18d7…2968 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,077 (+7%) realized +$1,278 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%56W / 129L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$297
14 days−$246
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2,194
other 32% −$1,144
world 8% +$195
politics 5% −$299
crypto 3% −$224
finance 1% +$134
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 29% +2.8%
≤30d 114 -9.8% -18.4% 26% 25% -7.6%
≤90d 185 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 30% -2.8%
all 185 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 30% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 30% -2.8%
10% -18.9% 29% -12.1%
15% -26.8% 27% -20.6%
20% -33.9% 24% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$67 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized+$1,278
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses56 / 129
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions14
Markets (closed)185 / 199
History coverage76d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 65¢ 86¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 29¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+61%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 14¢ 2¢ $98 $15 −$83 (-85%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$612 +596%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $20 +$25 +122%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $21 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 +$64 +250%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $103 −$83 -81%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $89 −$87 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 22h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 16¢ $26 46h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Michael Zhu 23¢ $51 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 9¢ $21 6d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 20¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.15 · official $868.27 (match) · 327 history records