Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x18d8…c364 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,938 (-11%) realized −$1,938 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$235
14 days−$1,722
30 days−$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$1,240
other 13% −$1,299
crypto 12% −$161
politics 5% +$628
finance 1% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 62% -1.7%
≤30d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 52% -18.6%
≤90d 52 +13.4% +2.6% 62% 58% -15.7%
all 64 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 55% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 55% -19.8%
10% -11.6% 50% -27.5%
15% -20.1% 41% -34.5%
20% -27.9% 25% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$209 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,938
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage174d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$51 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $153 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$12 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $130 −$48 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$26 +51%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $638 −$63 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$21 +41%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $794 +$308 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $359 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $821 −$821 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $794 +$27 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,964 −$1,170 -60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $1,131 +$965 +85%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 04 $305 −$58 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $1,127 −$72 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $407 +$62 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $489 +$169 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 17 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $127 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $127 +$33 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $77 +$53 +69%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $45 +$35 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 13 $127 −$74 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 13 $26 +$7 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $138 +$53 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 13 $26 +$28 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $113 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $78 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $100 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records