Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d8…400b sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$719 (-36%) realized −$703 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%21W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day116.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$195
14 days−$672
30 days−$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -20.6% -28.2% 23% 21% -25.7%
≤30d 97 -23.3% -30.6% 22% 21% -42.4%
≤90d 97 -23.3% -30.6% 22% 21% -42.4%
all 97 -23.3% -30.6% 22% 21% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 21% -42.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 21% -48.0%
15% -43.3% 21% -53.0%
20% -48.9% 21% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$18 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$703
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses21 / 76
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day116.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ 74¢ $21 $71 +$50 (+237%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ 50¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Susan Bandecchi 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Elise Mertens 36¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 24¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Carolyn Ansari 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $29 +$142 +492%
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 15 $8 +$31 +404%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $44 +$2 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $4 +$7 +180%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $21 +$38 +182%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $20 +$38 +188%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $18 +$12 +71%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $31 −$30 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato Jun 14 $20 +$37 +180%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
ITF Decatur: Lea Ma vs Zuzanna Pawlikowska Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $12 +$11 +92%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dinko Dinev Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Maria Aytoyan vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Lily Taylor vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $11 +$39 +348%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $20 −$19 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Kristina Penickova vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Nice: Oana Georgeta Simion vs Jenny Lim Jun 12 $17 −$16 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $27 +$52 +194%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 21¢ $10 45m
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 19¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 19¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 36¢ $2 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 17¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 17¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Carolyn Ansari 32¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $2 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 23¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 23¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 23¢ $3 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 16¢ $2 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 16¢ $0 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $3 2h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 16¢ $2 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 16¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 16¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.00 · official $96.00 (match) · 1583 history records