Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x18d9…e385 other 69 markets active 5h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 7% +$17
sports 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 25% 25% -5.0%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 11% 5% -7.8%
≤90d 52 -8.4% -17.1% 15% 12% -8.7%
all 67 -6.7% -15.6% 18% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 9% -9.5%
10% -23.6% 9% -18.2%
15% -31.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -37.8% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage633d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $36 +$14 +40%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 30 $22 +$31 +144%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 47h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.84 · official $78.84 (match) · 302 history records