Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

18 0x18da…2182 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$28 (+21%) realized +$56 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%8W / 3L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+16.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+29.2%	+16.9%	73%	73%	+17.2%
≤30d	11	+29.2%	+16.9%	73%	73%	+17.2%
≤90d	11	+29.2%	+16.9%	73%	73%	+17.2%
all	11	+29.2%	+16.9%	73%	73%	+17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.9%	73%	+17.2%
10%	+5.7%	73%	+6.0%
15%	-4.5%	73%	-4.2%
20%	-13.8%	55%	-13.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$56

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses8 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage4d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	47¢	14¢	$40	$12	−$28 (-69%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$5	+$6	+112%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$8	+$7	+88%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$12	+$8	+63%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$5	+$7	+137%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 26	$5	+$3	+60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$18	+$7	+38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$5	+$4	+74%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	Jun 25	$10	+$5	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$31	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	46¢	$10	9h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$8	2d
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	60¢	$12	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$5	2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$5	2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	61¢	$5	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	71¢	$18	3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	66¢	$10	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.15 · official $12.15 (match) · 21 history records