Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18da…d4f6 sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day204.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$18
other 17% −$2
world 4% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -11.0% -19.4% 42% 35% -14.1%
≤30d 71 -11.0% -19.4% 42% 35% -14.1%
≤90d 71 -11.0% -19.4% 42% 35% -14.1%
all 71 -11.0% -19.4% 42% 35% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 35% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 28% -22.3%
15% -34.2% 21% -29.8%
20% -40.6% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)71 / 84
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day204.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 57¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 59¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 29¢ 29¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$2 -55%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +71%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 6m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 7m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 7m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 8m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 87¢ $4 14m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 14m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 15m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 45m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 46m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $1 46m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 85¢ $4 47m
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 4¢ $1 51m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $3 55m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $2 56m
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 6¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 3¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $4 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 12¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 89¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 58¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 60¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.90 · official $27.90 (match) · 227 history records