Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18dc…5e90 other 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,872 (+3%) realized +$3,948 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%61W / 484L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,036
30 days−$1,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$3,939
sports 36% −$676
world 9% +$35
crypto 3% +$648
politics 1% −$49
weather 1% −$117
culture 0% −$40
tech 0% −$43
economics 0% −$12
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 -17.7% -25.5% 6% 2% -16.1%
≤30d 472 -17.6% -25.5% 6% 2% -15.9%
≤90d 496 -17.6% -25.5% 6% 2% -11.3%
all 545 -14.0% -22.2% 11% 5% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 5% -7.1%
10% -29.7% 3% -16.0%
15% -36.5% 3% -24.1%
20% -42.7% 2% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$9 · ×14.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$3,948
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses61 / 484
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions24
Markets (closed)545 / 569
History coverage420d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will T1 Esports Academy Win Asia Masters 2026 Yes 45¢ 38¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Yes 44¢ 29¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-34%)
Will Efraim Filho win the Governor of Paraíba election? Yes 43¢ 19¢ $35 $16 −$20 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Yes 56¢ 16¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-72%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 36¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? No 48¢ 22¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? No 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will Jason Day lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Yes 38¢ 5¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? No 63¢ 75¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 19? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$8 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 18 $48 −$2 -4%
Will any player break the record for lowest score in a round at the 20 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $56 −$4 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Algeria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Jun 18 $12 −$5 -40%
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 18 $0 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 18 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 18 $17 $0 -1%
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire? Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
U.S. Open: First Time Winner? Jun 18 $23 −$12 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 18 $8 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Repr Jun 18 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legisla Jun 18 $7 −$6 -81%
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 1.8% and 2. Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 43¢ $21 1m
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 44¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 44¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 5m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 6m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 7m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $11 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $11 9m
Will any player break the record for lowest score in a round at the 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 15m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 15m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $2 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.92 · official $120.91 · 3113 history records