Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18de…c02f other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$237 (-16%) realized +$331 · open −$568
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$273
crypto 33% −$470
sports 3% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.4% -32.5% 17% 17% -40.6%
≤30d 12 -25.4% -32.5% 17% 17% -40.6%
≤90d 12 -25.4% -32.5% 17% 17% -40.6%
all 12 -25.4% -32.5% 17% 17% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 17% -40.6%
10% -39.0% 17% -46.2%
15% -44.9% 17% -51.4%
20% -50.3% 8% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$57 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$331
Unrealized−$568
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)12 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $43 $102 +$59 (+138%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $104 $1 −$103 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $152 $1 −$151 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $125 $1 −$124 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$333 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 7m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 58m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $76 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $76 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $76 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $57 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 22h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 26h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 26h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.15 · official $231.15 (match) · 31 history records