Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x18de…1f14 other 684 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,434 (+48%) realized +$1,511 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt +179% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +133% what you keep after slip
Net edge+133%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%296W / 333L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$152
14 days+$160
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$664
politics 14% −$44
world 12% +$271
sports 12% −$15
culture 7% −$161
crypto 5% +$436
economics 4% −$26
tech 4% +$306
weather 4% −$43
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+152.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +316.5% +276.9% 50% 50% +528.3%
≤30d 19 +346.4% +303.9% 58% 58% +428.1%
≤90d 145 +114.6% +94.1% 37% 35% +15.9%
all 629 +179.1% +152.5% 47% 44% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +152.5% 44% +37.9%
10% +128.3% 42% +24.7%
15% +106.3% 40% +12.6%
20% +86.1% 37% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +179% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +234% → late +124% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$1,511
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses296 / 333
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions55
Markets (closed)629 / 684
History coverage182d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes $11 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes $6 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$2 (+50%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party win the IL-10 House seat? Yes 20¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $14 $1 −$12 (-90%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $6 +$155 +2398%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $3 +$5 +146%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 +100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 08 $0 +$2 +454%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%? Jun 08 $1 +$5 +861%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +88%
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +170%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 02 $0 $0 -99%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? May 31 $0 +$3 +1341%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $13 +$10 +75%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el May 19 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the May 18 $2 +$11 +727%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 18 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Rick Caruso finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Micware's market cap be between $350M and $450M at market close o May 14 $0 +$1 +2713%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Micware's market cap be less than $350M at market close on IPO da May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? May 13 $0 +$3 +733%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 13 $1 +$2 +293%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $6 +$13 +214%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%? May 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 10, 2026? May 03 $0 +$5 +2816%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 2, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be betwe May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? May 01 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting? Apr 29 $6 −$5 -87%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week? Apr 26 $0 +$5 +1136%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DeepSeek V4 be released on May 8, 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $52 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $3 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 4h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 14h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 14h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 14h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 14h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes $0 14h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $61 27h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 10¢ $9 36h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes $0 36h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes $0 36h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $2 37h
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by BUY Yes $0 38h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra BUY Yes $0 38h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $6 38h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ BUY Yes $1 38h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes $4 38h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $2 39h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $3 40h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $5 40h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $3 40h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $6 40h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.84 · official $67.84 (match) · 3061 history records