Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e0…d024 other 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,174 (-25%) realized −$2,214 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%102W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$2,091
other 26% −$78
crypto 8% −$71
tech 5% +$65
world 4% +$8
culture 3% −$94
sports 2% −$96
economics 1% +$84
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 33% -13.6%
≤30d 26 -13.4% -21.7% 38% 31% -13.8%
≤90d 38 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 39% -5.8%
all 264 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 31% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 31% -36.2%
10% -34.8% 25% -42.3%
15% -41.1% 19% -47.9%
20% -46.9% 15% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses102 / 162
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)264 / 306
History coverage359d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $62 $82 +$20 (+32%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $61 $53 −$9 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $28 $42 +$13 (+47%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-21%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 16¢ 29¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+84%)
Will Colo-Colo win Chile Primera? Yes 12¢ 50¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+301%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? No 47¢ 56¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $4 $11 +$6 (+156%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+40%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No 45¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+142%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $8 −$2 -30%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $86 −$3 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 05 $14 −$4 -28%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $105 −$4 -4%
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Natio Jun 04 $7 +$1 +15%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $12 −$2 -21%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $2 $0 +5%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $4 +$2 +39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $11 +$14 +118%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 24 $37 +$30 +81%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $30 −$21 -71%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 +$4 +267%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 18 $36 −$8 -22%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $39 −$2 -4%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 12 $32 −$10 -32%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 10 $8 +$7 +82%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $28 +$18 +63%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $29 −$9 -31%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Apr 30 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $4 $0 -6%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Apr 14 $14 −$10 -71%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $80 +$24 +30%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +56%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $32 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 25 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1AM ET Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12AM ET Feb 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 6¢ $0 55m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nat BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 5¢ $5 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Natio SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nat SELL Yes 9¢ $3 13h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.54 · official $439.34 (match) · 3122 history records