Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x18e0…ace4 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$3
finance 34% $0
other 10% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage94d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Jun 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 27 $1,017 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 16 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 05 $72 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? SELL No 100¢ $65 8m
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $72 16m
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 23m
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 37m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $171 51m
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 59m
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $711 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $955 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 70d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 70d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $135 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $135 71d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 72d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 72d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $137 72d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $137 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $140 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $139 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? SELL No 98¢ $72 83d
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $12 83d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 98¢ $43 83d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records