Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18e1…3584 world 7 markets active 22h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$433 (-69%) realized −$433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$269
world 37% −$54
crypto 19% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -60.7% -64.5% 14% 0% -74.1%
≤30d 7 -60.7% -64.5% 14% 0% -74.1%
≤90d 7 -60.7% -64.5% 14% 0% -74.1%
all 7 -60.7% -64.5% 14% 0% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.5% 0% -74.1%
10% -67.9% 0% -76.5%
15% -71.0% 0% -78.8%
20% -73.8% 0% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$88 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 18 $175 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $215 −$54 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 2¢ $32 22h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $7 27h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $14 27h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $23 27h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $6 27h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $71 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $36 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $2 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $8 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $4 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records