Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18e3…1463
crypto · 1067 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,206 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,206 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses480 / 798
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1278 / 1067
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1081.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1278 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,008
7 days−$1,206
14 days−$1,206
30 days−$1,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+169%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$4 -125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,939
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1278 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 35% -17.5%
≤30d 1278 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 35% -17.5%
≤90d 1278 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 35% -17.5%
all 1278 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 35% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1081.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 35% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 32% -25.4%
15% -38.7% 27% -32.6%
20% -44.7% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.10 (match) · 3500 history records