Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
18 0x18e8…17ce other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2 (+7%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$3
sports 40% +$5
tech 7% $0
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.5% +11.8% 67% 44% +37.9%
≤30d 9 +23.5% +11.8% 67% 44% +37.9%
≤90d 9 +23.5% +11.8% 67% 44% +37.9%
all 9 +23.5% +11.8% 67% 44% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 44% +37.9%
10% +1.1% 44% +24.7%
15% -8.7% 33% +12.6%
20% -17.7% 33% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +116%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL 54¢ $11 34h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.30 · official $13.30 (match) · 23 history records