Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

18 0x18eb…e3b5 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$39

7 days+$13

14 days+$13

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+12.5%	+1.8%	48%	48%	-6.3%
≤30d	21	+12.5%	+1.8%	48%	48%	-6.3%
≤90d	21	+12.5%	+1.8%	48%	48%	-6.3%
all	23	+9.7%	-0.7%	48%	48%	-13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.7%	48%	-13.6%
10%	-10.2%	43%	-21.9%
15%	-18.9%	35%	-29.4%
20%	-26.8%	30%	-36.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +38% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage

Net worth$61

Realized−$10

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage588d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$22	$22	−$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$14	$13	−$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$13	$12	−$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	−$1	-4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$34	+$4	+11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$43	−$16	-36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$6	+28%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$7	+$6	+86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$10	+93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$9	−$4	-41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$38	+$37	+99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$39	+$16	+40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$1	-8%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$15	+$15	+100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$14	−$2	-14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$31	−$31	-99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$5	−$1	-12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$29	+$18	+61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	−$8	-77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$15	+$7	+44%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$19	−$19	-99%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 16	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$27	+$16	+61%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$7	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$11	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$9	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$9	5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$7	6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$11	6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	29¢	$14	7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	42¢	$14	8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$14	8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	27¢	$14	9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$6	9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	50¢	$10	9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$9	9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$15	11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	12¢	$12	11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$26	11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$13	17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$7	18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$7	23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.00 · official $61.00 (match) · 69 history records