Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f0…3d5e sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27,435 (+13%) realized +$27,401 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,192per market
Trades / day279.3pace
Fees−$3,562est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$830
other 19% +$333
politics 7% +$168
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +42.2% +28.6% 47% 9% -8.6%
≤30d 63 +30.7% +18.2% 41% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 63 +30.7% +18.2% 41% 6% -9.7%
all 63 +30.7% +18.2% 41% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover279.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.2% 6% -9.7%
10% +6.9% 3% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -3.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -12.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$3,391) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
27.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$94 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6,750
Realized+$27,401
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,562
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$3,192
Trades / day279.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $3,915 $3,949 +$34 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 41¢ 42¢ $2,767 $2,801 +$34 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $123 −$25 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20,178 +$420 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8,075 −$16 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,261 +$29 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $771 +$8 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 −$4 -6%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,367 +$135 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,220 −$90 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,491 −$469 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $694 +$17 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6,421 +$213 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7,226 −$290 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13,195 −$41 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,710 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10,501 −$185 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,391 +$165 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $555 −$15 -3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $444 −$29 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Boston Cannons vs. New York Atlas Jun 13 $8 −$2 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12,589 −$37 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,795 +$21 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,856 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $90 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $68 +$12 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,155 +$49 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $140 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $366 +$15 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,974 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $916 −$76 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,434 −$17 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $732 −$12 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30,300 +$1,711 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $7,607 +$173 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $977 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $97 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $3 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $10 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $12 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $154 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $346 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $2 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $208 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $1 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $7 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $7 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $2 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $11 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $16 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $139 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $3 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $3 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $14 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $681 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $3 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $70 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,917 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $63 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $0 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $1 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $1 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $2 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $2 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No $3 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,749.97 · official $6,749.97 (match) · 3500 history records