Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f3…3b06 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-19%) realized −$63 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day59.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$45
crypto 34% −$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.7% -29.2% 43% 30% -28.3%
≤30d 44 -21.7% -29.2% 43% 30% -28.3%
≤90d 44 -21.7% -29.2% 43% 30% -28.3%
all 44 -21.7% -29.2% 43% 30% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 30% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 20% -35.2%
15% -42.2% 16% -41.5%
20% -47.8% 9% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 30¢ 68¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $24 +$5 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$3 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +38%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$5 -53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 −$2 -29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +153%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 −$20 -84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $5 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $1 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 26¢ $6 44m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 84¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 84¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 55¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 71¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 66¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 86¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $5 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 82¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $9 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.25 · official $11.25 (match) · 141 history records