Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18f9…42ce weather 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-8%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%93W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$18
weather 26% $0
other 23% −$1
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -11.3%
all 117 -8.0% -16.8% 79% 17% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 17% -17.5%
10% -24.7% 15% -25.4%
15% -32.0% 11% -32.6%
20% -38.7% 10% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses93 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records