Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18fa…3c5e
crypto · 38 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 10PM ET? No 68¢ 92¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? No 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 1AM ET? No 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? No 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 11, 11PM ET? No 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 12, 9PM ET? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +425%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -87%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 1AM ET? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$16 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$13
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 10PM ET? BUY No 68¢ $8 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 36m
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 12, 9PM ET? SELL No 100¢ $5 40m
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 12, 9PM ET? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 1AM ET? BUY No 20¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY No 5¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY No 8¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY No 61¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 11, 11PM ET? BUY No 24¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +16.4% +5.3% 32% 32% -28.0%
≤30d 37 +16.4% +5.3% 32% 32% -28.0%
≤90d 37 +16.4% +5.3% 32% 32% -28.0%
all 37 +16.4% +5.3% 32% 32% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 32% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 30% -34.9%
15% -14.0% 24% -41.1%
20% -22.4% 19% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $10.06 (match) · 79 history records