Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
18 0x18ff…1721 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,551 (+26%) realized +$1,554 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$189
14 days+$290
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,544
other 3% $0
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +89.6% +71.5% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 2 +91.4% +73.2% 100% 100% +72.6%
≤90d 10 +27.6% +15.4% 80% 50% +14.7%
all 37 +17.3% +6.1% 70% 46% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 46% +15.6%
10% -4.0% 46% +4.5%
15% -13.3% 46% -5.6%
20% -21.8% 46% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$174 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$1,554
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage220d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $348 $345 −$3 (-1%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $211 +$189 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $109 +$101 +93%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $90 $0 +0%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 24 $421 −$421 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 14 $218 +$203 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $107 +$101 +95%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $389 +$404 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 19 $206 +$177 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Wild vs. Golden Knights Mar 10 $108 +$108 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes Feb 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Feb 03 $107 −$107 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5 Jan 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jan 13 $414 +$382 +92%
Spread: Magic (-1.5) Jan 10 $207 +$207 +100%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Jan 07 $106 +$101 +96%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 03 $401 +$434 +108%
O/U 48.5 Jan 02 $218 +$179 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Dec 27 $113 +$109 +96%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Dec 23 $370 −$370 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 20 $199 +$176 +89%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $10 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Rangers Dec 18 $94 +$110 +117%
Spread: Eagles (-2.5) Dec 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 03 $403 −$403 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5 Dec 02 $208 +$192 +92%
Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 Nov 27 $103 +$107 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 16 $56 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Nov 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $353 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $211 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 51¢ $109 14d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $107 42d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 47d
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $421 66d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Magic 51¢ $218 74d
Celtics vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 51¢ $107 81d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 81d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $90 81d
Canadiens vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 49¢ $389 92d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 92d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 101d
Suns vs. Bucks BUY Suns 54¢ $206 101d
Wild vs. Golden Knights BUY Wild 50¢ $108 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 112d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 119d
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes BUY Team USA Stars 46¢ $92 124d
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) BUY Nuggets 51¢ $107 141d
Pelicans vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5 BUY Under 50¢ $92 154d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Clippers 52¢ $362 159d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Clippers 52¢ $52 159d
Spread: Magic (-1.5) BUY Nets 50¢ $207 163d
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) BUY Warriors 51¢ $106 165d
Nets vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 48¢ $401 168d
O/U 48.5 BUY Under 55¢ $218 174d
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) BUY Chiefs 51¢ $113 176d
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) BUY Nuggets 47¢ $370 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $10 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.12 · official $435.12 (match) · 132 history records