Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1900…32ae weather 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%187W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$13
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 144 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 193 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×37.65 per $1 lost it wins $37.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses187 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage120d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4? Jun 05 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C or below on May 23 May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 20? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 18? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on May 19? May 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 10? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 9? May 10 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $167 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $170 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $92 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $92 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $99 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $183 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $176 11d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $172 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $180 13d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $180 13d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $94 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $97 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $169 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $170 16d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $174 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $169 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $59 18d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $120 19d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $0 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $110 20d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $59 21d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $39.99 (match) · 409 history records