Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1902…f8a2 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$4
other 22% −$3
world 20% −$2
tech 9% −$1
economics 9% −$4
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -3.7% -12.9% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$831) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage98d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $42 $0 -0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jun 26 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? Jun 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 26 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 30 $27 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 30 $763 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $831 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $853 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Apr 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Apr 30 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 30 $875 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $846 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026? Mar 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu Mar 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Mar 23 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $973 1h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $958 1h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $37 2h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $728 2h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 49d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 49d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May SELL No 100¢ $61 52d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 52d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $43 52d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 52d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $12 52d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $19 52d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $12 52d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 52d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $23 52d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 56d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 56d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 56d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 56d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 56d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $825 56d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 SELL No 100¢ $26 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 79 history records