Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1907…85b9 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,027 (-13%) realized −$989 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,723
7 days−$1,126
14 days−$1,007
30 days−$1,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,182
other 1% +$207
world 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 44% -19.7%
≤30d 39 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 46% -18.0%
≤90d 39 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 46% -18.0%
all 39 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 46% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 46% -18.0%
10% -16.3% 46% -25.8%
15% -24.4% 46% -33.0%
20% -31.8% 46% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$189 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$989
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 Under 56¢ 46¢ $222 $184 −$38 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $86 +$139 +162%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$6 -6%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $89 +$184 +206%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $216 −$216 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $172 −$172 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $283 −$283 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 16 $194 −$194 -100%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 16 $268 −$268 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 16 $1,560 −$1,246 -80%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $504 +$416 +82%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $294 +$210 +71%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $170 +$125 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $469 −$346 -74%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $297 −$14 -5%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $292 +$154 +53%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $134 +$83 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 +$63 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$62 +122%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $77 +$159 +206%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $168 +$163 +97%
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $480 +$552 +115%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $101 +$71 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Giron Jun 11 $158 −$156 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $98 −$96 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $154 +$163 +106%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $115 +$207 +180%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $99 +$93 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $76 +$71 +93%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 56¢ $224 50m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $225 50m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 37¢ $86 1h
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 52¢ $86 1h
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 56¢ $96 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 40¢ $96 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $102 4h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 32¢ $89 5h
Mattia Bellucci vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $50 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $71 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $919 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $504 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $504 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $294 15h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 57¢ $170 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $24 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $283 20h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $1 20h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $283 20h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $297 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $114 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $445 21h
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet SELL Perricard 99¢ $446 21h
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Perricard 64¢ $292 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $200 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $216 37h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 95¢ $217 37h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $134 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $134 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $113 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.93 · official $183.93 (match) · 127 history records