Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1908…5649 sports 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%225W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days−$59
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$48
crypto 30% −$36
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 54% -5.2%
≤30d 139 -9.0% -17.6% 53% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 423 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 49% -10.8%
all 423 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 49% -10.8%
10% -25.1% 41% -19.4%
15% -32.3% 34% -27.1%
20% -39.0% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses225 / 198
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage72d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions (174 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $28 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$5 +221%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $33 −$5 -16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$4 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$9 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$3 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $27 −$15 -55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$11 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$9 +58%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $68 −$24 -35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$10 -33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$4 -19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$17 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $7 13h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 14h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 14h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 69¢ $21 33h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 68¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 59¢ $19 34h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 48¢ $21 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $28 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 45¢ $7 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 86¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 77¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 820 history records