Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x1909…eef5 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+16%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$1
world 23% +$2
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -47.2%
≤30d 4 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -47.2%
≤90d 4 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -47.2%
all 9 +13.2% +2.5% 67% 67% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 67% +10.5%
10% -7.3% 67% -0.1%
15% -16.3% 56% -9.7%
20% -24.5% 33% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage189d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+316%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +49%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Dec 19 $10 +$2 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $2 +$5 +185%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 178d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 187d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 187d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 188d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 188d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 188d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 188d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 188d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 188d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.94 · official $13.94 (match) · 22 history records