Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x190d…7516 other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,141 (-1%) realized −$1,142 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$713per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$993
politics 41% −$42
sports 13% −$105
culture 2% −$2
crypto 0% −$12
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -1.8% -11.1% 5% 0% -11.1%
all 129 -3.6% -12.7% 14% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 11% -10.7%
10% -21.1% 11% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 9% -27.0%
20% -35.7% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$886) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized−$1,142
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage132d
Avg bet$713
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $546 $548 +$1 (+0%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $487 $486 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,227 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,927 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $682 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $950 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,316 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,291 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $724 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $491 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $483 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $495 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 53m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $412 53m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $413 4h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $502 29h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $503 31h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $501 46h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $502 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $461 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $462 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $473 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $473 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $485 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $546 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $634 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $635 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $853 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $822 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $823 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $868 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $818 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $819 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,033.95 · official $1,033.95 (match) · 437 history records