Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x190e…1bc4 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$109 (+10%) realized +$112 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate76%34W / 11L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$103
14 days+$108
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$15
sports 30% +$111
crypto 3% +$9
tech 2% +$1
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +28.0% +15.8% 73% 57% +0.1%
≤30d 39 +28.0% +15.8% 74% 56% +0.4%
≤90d 39 +28.0% +15.8% 74% 56% +0.4%
all 45 +22.9% +11.2% 76% 51% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 51% -0.1%
10% +0.5% 44% -9.7%
15% -9.2% 33% -18.4%
20% -18.1% 22% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses34 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage234d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $71 +$29 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$22 -72%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $50 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 +$4 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$10 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +365%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$7 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$11 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$36 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$12 +37%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $15 +$2 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $18 +$1 +6%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 07 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $20 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 29h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.46 · official $17.76 (match) · 121 history records