Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x190e…da3b world 42 markets active 5h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$5
other 20% +$2
politics 8% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 4% +$2
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 19 -2.1% -11.4% 16% 0% -10.1%
all 42 -0.9% -10.4% 26% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage327d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 −$2 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $91 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $27 −$3 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $45 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $31 +$2 +8%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $2 $0 +8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 07 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 01 $1 $0 -19%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 30 $25 +$2 +8%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 28 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $17 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $19 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $41 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records