Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x190e…b11a
crypto · 16 markets active 4h ago
5.5score
+$3,314 +100%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open +$3,148
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,510
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$3,148
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage137d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 28¢ 66¢ $2,263 $5,231 +$2,968 (+131%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? No 31¢ 88¢ $100 $279 +$180 (+180%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 08 $4 +$1 +21%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $137 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $106 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 28 $104 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 28 $7 −$4 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 28 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 28 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 77% +$3,159
crypto 23% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,299 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $500 14h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $103 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $518 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 37d
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $137 57d
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $98 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $109 136d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $106 136d
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 137d
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 137d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -23.7% -31.0% 67% 33% -44.7%
all 14 -21.1% -28.6% 71% 14% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 14% -19.4%
10% -35.5% 7% -27.1%
15% -41.7% 0% -34.2%
20% -47.4% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,510.26 · official $5,510.26 (match) · 43 history records